Earlier today, Vivek discussed why he thinks the crypto-native Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, favors Trump in the upcoming US presidential election. While it is plausible given the arguments he laid out, I still believe it may not be as biased as he may think.
Primarily, market traders gamble on these opportunities to make money, not to pledge allegiance to their favorite politician. Traders want to make a profit and try to lock in their bets at attractive odds on who they think will win. Based on many factors, such as positive registration data from incoming Republican voters in swing states like Pennsylvania, there are signs that Trump has a very solid chance of winning this election. Even billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller said that the recent positive rebound in markets is due to markets pricing in a Trump victory.
Like Vivek, many argue that since Polymarket is crypto-native, its users naturally support Trump because he is also pro-Bitcoin and crypto. So let’s take a look at another, non-crypto-native, market forecasting platform: Kalshi.
Trump also has a huge lead on Kalshi, an American gambling platform that handles contracts in dollars, and not in Bitcoin or crypto. Trump is currently 20% higher than Harris. The crowd of users on this platform seem to be choosing their bets on who they think will win the election, even putting aside their own personal political preferences. Reading the comments, I see a lot of people saying they want Trump to win, but they’re taking the other side of this bet because they think there might be election fraud by the Democrats, which would cause Harris to “win.” .
“All of you who bet on Trump haven’t priced in the likelihood of vans rolling into polling stations at 3am with tens of thousands of ballots, 99% of which went to Kamala who suddenly ‘found’ them.” commented one user. “Kamala will win legitimately or not, you have been warned.”
It will be fascinating to see how these prediction markets develop as we get closer to the election, which is now just two weeks away. I agree with Vivek that as we get closer to the elections, these margins are likely to narrow. It looks like Trump has this one in the bag, but it’s not over until it’s over. In the last election, most people went to sleep thinking that Trump won the election just because the Democrats discovered all these ballots at 3am that voted for Biden to help him win the election. If there is election fraud and interference in the upcoming elections, these prediction markets could be in for a very volatile time.
A Trump victory would be huge for Bitcoin on a regulatory level and in terms of price, because of his proposed policies. Under Harris, on the other hand, Bitcoin’s future in this country would be uncertain as she has laid out no real details about the policies she would implement as president and has a four-year track record of attacking the industry during her time in office. as vice president.
Bitcoin Magazine has partnered with Stand With Crypto to provide real-time election coverage on November 5. So if you are a Bitcoiner who is tired of watching the mainstream news and want to watch this election from a Bitcoiner’s perspective, make sure you tune into the stream. More details about the live stream and where you can watch it here.
This article is a To take. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.