Bitcoin has fallen back below the $100,000 level over the past day as on-chain data shows the OG whales have woken up.
Bitcoin OGs have recently transferred huge amounts of money
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This metric essentially tracks the total number of coins that investors who have owned for 10 years or more have moved on the BTC blockchain in the past month. Below is the chart for the indicator shared by the analyst.
The value of the metric appears to have been pretty high in recent days | Source: @jjcmoreno on X
As visible in the chart, the 10+ year old investors have moved a large number of coins as the cryptocurrency’s price surge occurred over the past month.
Statistically, the longer investors hold onto their coins, the less likely they are to sell them at any point. This chance of not selling becomes significant after the 155 day period, so the investors who manage to hold on longer than this period become “long term holders” (LTHs).
Of course, even among LTHs, every investor’s resolve only becomes stronger as the age of their coins increases. In the context of the current topic, the relevant LTHs are those with tokens older than ten years, entities that are old even by the group’s standards.
While these investors are certainly very old, it is difficult to say whether they are actually determined. This may sound contradictory given the previous fact, but it is also a statistical truth that coins older than seven years are more likely to have gotten there through loss than through HODLing.
A token is said to be ‘lost’ when its wallet becomes inaccessible, either because it is forgotten or the keys are lost. Many of these coins will never enter circulating supply again, but some may eventually be rediscovered.
Some of the investors who spent the old coins during the last rally may have simply found an old stash of their or someone else’s coins, so they may never have voluntarily engaged in any HODLing.
The remaining sellers may be the most determined diamond hands they’ve owned since 2014 or earlier. It seems these HODLers have become satisfied enough with the Target of $100,000 that they are willing to finally part with their coins.
In total, cumulative releases of 10+ year old coins nearly reached the $1 billion mark in 30 days, just before the latest asset pullback. Given the timing, it is possible that this sale played a role in this crash.
BTC price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $97,700, down more than 5% in the past 24 hours.
Looks like the price of the coin has retraced from its latest high | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com