Bitcoin is selling off as of this writing, approaching psychological support at $60,000. As can be seen from the daily chart, this represents a weak start to the fourth quarter of 2024 – a historically bullish quarter.
Bitcoin miners are reducing their dumps
While BTC is under pressure and down nearly 10% from September highs, Bitcoin miners appear to have slowed their liquidation activities. In a post on X, an analyst notes that top Bitcoin miners have been gradually reducing coin transfers to top centralized exchanges like Binance and Coinbase in recent weeks.
This development represents a huge price increase following the April 20 Halving event. Typically, and looking at past trends, before and after the halving, miners tend to move their reserves to exchanges and sell them as they adjust to the new inflation regime.
After halving, the protocol automatically reduces block rewards by 50%. The 50% drop also means miners will have to adjust to the equal drop in revenue, especially if the transaction fees associated with each block do not change significantly.
After prices rose to nearly $74,000 in March, market traders expected Bitcoin to resume its uptrend immediately afterwards. Halving. However, due to the thousands of BTC sold by ‘weak’ miners after the halving, prices fell, even with a net inflow in some cases from spot Bitcoin ETF issuers in the United States.
Will BTC soar higher in Q4 2024?
Reducing selling pressure from miners would therefore likely support prices. Their decision to delay the liquidation of BTC indicates that they expect prices to recover in the coming months. To maintain the uptrend, traders keep an eye on fundamental factors.
That historically bullish fourth quarter of 2024, especially in October and November, could support optimistic bulls. The problem now is that the losses over the past three days mean this is the worst start for Bitcoin to October in at least a decade.
In the short term, the analyst says the sell-off is on saycould be contained if short-term holders (STHs) reduce their supply by 80,000 BTC. STHs are entities that have purchased the coin in the last 155 days.
They are often considered speculators and pose a risk to BTC’s uptrend as they tend to sell and cannot withstand sharp price swings. If they reduce their supply, BTC could find support at $60,000. Otherwise, if the bears continue, the coin could fall below $57,000 – a support line formed in the daily chart.
Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView