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With the 2024 election all but final, it is clear that Donald Trump, the soon-to-be 47th President of the United States, will be the most pro-Bitcoin leader in American history

However, the big question remains: how effective will he be in operationalizing his strategy?

At Bitcoin 2024, Trump – as well as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis – clear that they want the US government to buy Bitcoin. After the election, everyone seems to be in a better position to see this through, as the Republican Party has significantly expanded its representation in government.

But how quickly the US could become active in the market is more unclear. Since the bill was announced, Bitcoin has risen from $60,000 to a high of $86,000, and with the US government set to buy soon, there is even more reason for the price to escalate.

Herein lies the problem: the United States has essentially telegraphed to the world that it intends to buy something that is in short supply, without having the concrete ability to do so.

Even with a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, passing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Legislation 2024 will still require an act of Congress and the consent of lawmakers. It seems foolish to expect that this won’t be complex or time-consuming.

For example, the bill proposes to revalue the Federal Reserve’s gold reserves, as well as integrate Bitcoin into government financial systems. There will likely be many questions, as well as operational challenges. Let’s not forget that it took three years for the SEC Staff Bulletins to be amended just to properly value Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin buying spree on the public markets.

This is the nature of government: slow and bureaucratic. Even with Trump, RFK and other Bitcoin backers in positions of power, the chances of the US government starting to acquire Bitcoin on January 20, 2025 seem infinitesimal. This doesn’t mean it won’t happen at all, just that it won’t come at the right time.

This even overlooks the fact that there could be a challenge in setting priorities. Perhaps the crypto lobby will want to take quick action on the long-delayed market infrastructure bill. If so, Congress could be more concerned with exchange guardrails and redefining securities laws than with the strategic reserve issue. After all, they helped finance Trump’s victory.

How much can Bitcoin rise in the meantime? Now that the bull market is in full force, I would say that institutions and governments have every reason to become active in the market. There are many regimes around the world where the executive branch has enough power to accumulate Bitcoin today. It would be foolish not to be at the forefront of American government.

El Salvador started this process in 2021 and has accumulated more than 5,900 Bitcoin. Still, it faced market headwinds for two to three years as traders resisted market entry. Lest we forget, El Salvador bought hundreds of Bitcoins for $60,000, a move that fueled its enemies for years.

Trump can still do his part to boost Bitcoin. Yet, by telegraphing his intentions, he has almost certainly created conditions that can be exploited by shrewd traders.

Time will tell whether we will see other nation states among them.

By newadx4

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